Assessing Climatic Vulnerability for Yellow-eyed Pigeon (Columba eversmanni) in India's Arid Region

Abstract

Columba eversmanni, commonly known as the Yellow-eyed Pigeon, is a species with a limit-ed geographical distribution. It breeds in Central Asia and it moves toward South Asia during winters. The species faces significant threats from human activities and climate change. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model to assess the current and potential future distri-bution of the species based on climatic variables across its non-breeding range in the arid region of Rajasthan, India. We modelled the current climatic niche and predicted future cli-matic suitability for the year 2100 under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP 126, 245, 370, 585). The MaxEnt model showed good prediction accuracy, with an AUC value of 0.959±0.003. Under current climatic conditions, suitable habitat for the Yellow-eyed Pigeon covers approximately 16,275 km² within the arid regions with highly suitable area account-ing for 2,462 km² (1.36%) and moderately suitable area accounting for 13,812 km² (7.63%) of the total arid region (181,079 km²). Under SSP126 scenario, both highly and moderately suitable areas is predicted to increase by 31.79% and 10.33%, respectively. In contrast, un-der the most severe climatic scenario (SSP585), highly suitable habitat is projected to be decrease by 31.62%, while moderately suitable habitat is expected to increase by 36.06% in. Mean Temperature of the Wettest Quarter (Bio8) was the most influential predictor, contributing 45.3% to the model. This result suggests that warmer conditions during the wettest quarter, likely associated with favorable monsoon conditions, may enhance food availability and improve foraging conditions, thereby supporting higher winter occupancy of the Yellow-eyed Pigeon in its non-breeding habitats.